Written on: August 24, 2026
From the National Propane Gas Association Bobtail
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center has forecasted that there is a greater than 90% chance that the Northern Hemisphere will experience a very strong El Niño event during fall and winter 2026-2027. During an El Niño, warmer than average water in the Pacific Ocean gets pushes east to the U.S. West Coast. This warmer water, in turn, forces the Pacific jet stream to move south.
This climate phenomenon affects temperatures, precipitation events, and weather patterns for months at a time. Notably, different regions of the country are impacted differently. For example, upper PADDs 2 and 4 are typically warmer than average, while PADDs 1C and 3 are colder. El Niño conditions impact weather and energy consumption, both of which affect the propane marketplace.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) graphic shows what a typical El Niño means for the United States during the winter.
Long range weather forecasts are one of many data points marketers should utilize as they prepare for the upcoming heating season. For more information, contact NPGA’s Senior Director of State Advocacy & Affairs, Jacob Peterson, at jpeterson@npga.org.
