Written on: June 29, 2026
By Tucker Perkins
President and CEO of the Propane Education & Research Council. Host of the Path to Zero podcast.
Originally posted with Schwab Network Interview (see Link in first paragraph) on LinkedIn June 23, 2026.
I joined Tom White on the Schwab Network’s Morning Movers to break down where the energy markets are heading as Middle East tensions ease. While the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a massive win, anyone expecting oil to plummet to $60 a barrel is missing the bigger picture.
The global energy market has fundamentally changed. We are entering a new phase defined by urgent global resupply, a major rethinking of geopolitical choke points, and an explosive demand for power driven by the tech sector.
Here is what I’m tracking right now as we head into the second half of the year:
1. The Global Race to Resupply
With WTI crude nudging $74, we are hitting a natural floor. The entire world is short on storage, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is depleted to just 380 million barrels—nearly half its capacity. Buyers will aggressively step in to resupply whenever prices dip, locking us into a tight $75 to $80 range for the next six months. Furthermore, unwinding a shipping crisis takes time; getting ship traffic, insurers, and logistics back in sync won’t happen overnight.
2. Rethinking Choke Points & The Global Coal Revival
This recent energy shock proved American energy independence is our ultimate superpower. For us, it was a price shock; for the rest of the world, it was a supply crisis. As a result, nations are completely rethinking vulnerable global choke points like the Panama Canal and the Strait of Hormuz. In a surprising twist, we are seeing a massive global turn back to coal. It’s low-cost and carries minimal geopolitical risk, making it suddenly back in vogue for energy-starved nations.
3. The Big Tech Power Surge
The outlook for U.S. natural gas and propane is incredibly robust, fueled by the staggering infrastructure build-out for AI and data centers. Just in the last 24 hours:
Chevron and Microsoft partnered on a massive Permian Basin data center deal.
Jera (Japan’s energy giant) put $3 billion into a U.S. natural gas data center deal.
As natural gas is pulled heavily to power these massive tech hubs, a supply gap is opening up for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers. The propane industry is uniquely positioned to step in, provide cleaner, cheaper power, and capture that downstream demand.
